poverty map
A Comparative Analysis of Wealth Index Predictions in Africa between three Multi-Source Inference Models
Karsai, Márton, Kertész, János, Espín-Noboa, Lisette
Poverty map inference is a critical area of research, with growing interest in both traditional and modern techniques, ranging from regression models to convolutional neural networks applied to tabular data, images, and networks. Despite extensive focus on the validation of training phases, the scrutiny of final predictions remains limited. Here, we compare the Relative Wealth Index (RWI) inferred by Chi et al. (2022) with the International Wealth Index (IWI) inferred by Lee and Braithwaite (2022) and Esp\'in-Noboa et al. (2023) across six Sub-Saharan African countries. Our analysis focuses on identifying trends and discrepancies in wealth predictions over time. Our results show that the predictions by Chi et al. and Esp\'in-Noboa et al. align with general GDP trends, with differences expected due to the distinct time-frames of the training sets. However, predictions by Lee and Braithwaite diverge significantly, indicating potential issues with the validity of the model. These discrepancies highlight the need for policymakers and stakeholders in Africa to rigorously audit models that predict wealth, especially those used for decision-making on the ground. These and other techniques require continuous verification and refinement to enhance their reliability and ensure that poverty alleviation strategies are well-founded.
- Africa > Uganda (0.16)
- Africa > South Africa (0.06)
- Africa > Rwanda (0.05)
- (7 more...)
- Banking & Finance (1.00)
- Government (0.66)
Fairness and representation in satellite-based poverty maps: Evidence of urban-rural disparities and their impacts on downstream policy
Aiken, Emily, Rolf, Esther, Blumenstock, Joshua
Poverty maps derived from satellite imagery are increasingly used to inform high-stakes policy decisions, such as the allocation of humanitarian aid and the distribution of government resources. Such poverty maps are typically constructed by training machine learning algorithms on a relatively modest amount of ``ground truth" data from surveys, and then predicting poverty levels in areas where imagery exists but surveys do not. Using survey and satellite data from ten countries, this paper investigates disparities in representation, systematic biases in prediction errors, and fairness concerns in satellite-based poverty mapping across urban and rural lines, and shows how these phenomena affect the validity of policies based on predicted maps. Our findings highlight the importance of careful error and bias analysis before using satellite-based poverty maps in real-world policy decisions.
- North America > United States (0.47)
- North America > Mexico (0.15)
- South America > Colombia (0.15)
- (13 more...)
Machine learning 'poverty map' could help aid get to the right places in Africa
There are few bigger challenges than trying to solve world poverty. While there are plenty of initiatives going on in this area, one of the most intriguing is being carried out by researchers at Stanford University. Using a combination of satellite data and machine learning, they've developed a "poverty map" of Africa that could help direct aid to some of the world's most deprived areas. "One part of the problem when it comes to dealing with poverty is that we don't have very good data," Neal Jean, a Ph.D student in Machine Learning at Stanford, told Digital Trends. "If we want to help people, but we don't know exactly where they are, that makes it very difficult to do. Traditionally, the way data is collected on poverty is by going out into the field and having people conduct surveys. Our objective in doing this project was to come up with a cost-effective and scalable way of filling in some of these data gaps."
- North America > United States (0.06)
- Asia > India (0.06)
- Africa > Madagascar (0.06)